Hedging everything on CME, with zero weekend risk
This plan follows the same rule as the zero-risk plan: if no market is open where we can hedge a trade, the client can't make that trade. The difference is that every hedge goes to CME futures, on weekdays and weekends, instead of your LP. In the simulation this is strategy E.
Short answer: 8 of your 9 symbols can be hedged on CME. TON has no CME contract, so it still needs an exchange or a crypto LP, or you stop offering it. In the simulation, all-CME hedging keeps zero weekend risk and earns about $2.49M a year. That is $0.89M less than plan D ($3.38M), which hedges at your LP on weekdays. CME futures cost a little more per trade and must be rolled to a new expiry every month or quarter.
1. Which CME contract hedges each symbol
| Symbol | CME contract used | Size of one contract | Weekdays | Weekends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Micro Bitcoin futures | 0.1 BTC (≈ $11k) | Yes | Yes, 24/7 |
| ETH | Micro Ether futures | 0.1 ETH (≈ $400) | Yes | Yes, 24/7 |
| SOL | Micro Solana futures | 25 SOL (≈ $5k) | Yes | Yes, 24/7 |
| XRP | Micro XRP futures | 2,500 XRP (≈ $6k) | Yes | Yes, 24/7 |
| TON | None on CME. Use an exchange perpetual or a crypto LP. | — | Not CME | Not CME |
| Gold | 1-oz Gold futures (also 10-oz Micro Gold) | 1 oz (≈ $4k) | Yes | Yes, 24/7 up to $500k |
| Silver | 100-oz Silver futures | 100 oz (≈ $4k) | Yes | 24/7 from Sep 2026: confirm up to $200k |
| Copper | Micro Copper futures | 2,500 lb (≈ $12k) | Yes | Closed: no weekend contract |
| Brent | Brent Last Day Financial futures (NYMEX on CME Globex) | 1,000 bbl (≈ $65k) | Yes | Closed: no weekend contract |
The dollar sizes use rough prices assumed for the simulation. Confirm contract sizes, symbols and weekend availability with your FCM (your CME futures broker) before building. Brent's contract is large, so small client trades are added up until they make one contract. Up to half a contract (about $32k) can stay unhedged for a short time.
2. When CME is open, and what clients can do
Times in UTC (US summer time; one hour later after the US clock change on 1 November). In this plan, when CME is closed for a symbol, that symbol pauses for clients.
Every weekday21:00–22:00 UTC
CME daily break for gold, silver, copper and Brent (17:00–18:00 New York time). These four symbols pause for 1 hour every day. Crypto keeps trading.
Mon–Friall other hours
All symbols trade. Each client order is hedged at once with the CME contract in the table, using "hedge first, then fill".
Fri 21:00 UTCbefore the weekly close
Final check: every client position equals its CME hedge. Raise the margin clients need to hold copper and Brent over the weekend.
Fri 22:00 UTCweekend starts
Copper and Brent close for clients. Crypto continues on CME 24/7 crypto futures. Gold and silver continue on the CME 24/7 1-oz and 100-oz contracts, within their weekend limits. Spreads widen (1.5× crypto, 2.2× metals).
Saturday07:00–09:00 UTC
CME weekend maintenance. All CME symbols pause for 2 hours, including crypto. TON keeps trading on its exchange.
Sun 22:00 UTCCME weekly open
Copper and Brent reopen. Normal spreads return.
Every 4 weeksroll day
Roll: close the hedge in the expiring futures month and open the same size in the next month, as one calendar-spread trade. Clients see nothing. It costs about one spread on the hedge size.
3. What the simulation says
| C. Unified router | D. Zero risk (LP + CME) | E. Zero risk (all CME) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average profit per year | $5.51M | $3.38M | $2.49M |
| Bad year (1 in 20) | $5.08M | $3.35M | $2.39M |
| Worst weekend | −$9k | +$13k | +$5k (never a losing weekend) |
| Spread income | $8.28M | $8.17M | $8.05M |
| Cost of hedging (fees, spread, roll) | −$2.82M | −$4.79M | −$5.56M |
| Weekend risk carried | small | zero | zero (less than one contract) |
Per symbol, strategy E (profit per year)
| Symbol | Profit | Hedge cost | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $541k | −$1.18M | Biggest symbol |
| ETH | $500k | −$889k | |
| SOL | $480k | −$744k | |
| XRP | $379k | −$587k | |
| TON | $376k | −$439k | Hedged on an exchange, not CME |
| Gold | −$15k | −$714k | Loses money: the 4 bps markup equals the hedge cost. Raise the gold markup to about 6 bps. |
| Silver | $114k | −$379k | |
| Copper | $101k | −$168k | Weekdays only |
| Brent | $18k | −$466k | Almost no profit: large contract, less liquid. Raise the markup or keep Brent at the LP. |
The hedge costs are simulation assumptions: CME micro crypto 6–10 bps, 1-oz gold 4 bps, silver 6, copper 5, Brent 6, plus a roll every 4 weeks. Replace them with your FCM's real fees and the real bid/ask, then re-run.
4. All-CME vs. LP on weekdays: honest comparison
Why use CME for everything
- One account to fund. All hedges sit at one FCM instead of being split across an LP, exchanges and an FCM.
- No LP credit risk. CME's clearing house stands behind every trade.
- Same venue on weekends. No moving hedges from CME back to the LP every Sunday.
- Options on the same exchange for extra protection against very large moves.
- Public prices, so clients and regulators can check your quotes.
What it costs you
- About $0.9M a year less profit than plan D in the simulation (higher fees and rolls).
- Fixed contract sizes: small residual gaps, especially Brent ($65k contracts).
- Roll every month or quarter, with a fee each time.
- Daily 1-hour pause for metals and oil, and a 2-hour Saturday pause for everything on CME.
- Futures vs spot price gap: futures trade a little above or below spot. Fix: quote clients from the CME price itself (see step 4 below).
- Daily cash margin at CME: losses on hedges must be paid in cash every day, even though client accounts offset them.
- TON is not available.
A middle option: use CME for crypto, gold and silver (24/7 and liquid), and keep copper and Brent at your LP on weekdays. Those two can't trade on weekends either way, and the LP is cheaper for them, especially Brent. In the simulation this recovers about $160k a year, mostly from Brent ($173k with the LP against $18k on CME). Most of the extra cost of CME comes from crypto, where the micro futures cost a little more than spot hedging at a crypto LP.
5. Money needed for the all-CME plan
| What the money is for | How it is calculated | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| CME margin, crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) | Limits $4.9M × margin % | |
| TON hedge at an exchange | Limit $0.3M × crypto margin % | |
| CME margin, gold / silver / copper / Brent | Limits $4.3M × margin % | |
| Running costs in cash | Hedge cost $5.56M a year for the chosen months | |
| Reserve | Daily CME margin calls (paid in cash before client P&L comes in) plus client gap risk | |
| Total own capital |
The reserve is higher than in plan D because CME settles gains and losses on futures in cash every day. Ask your FCM for the real initial-margin rates and enter them above.
6. What to build, in order
Open the FCM account
- One FCM with CME Globex access for the micro crypto contracts, 1-oz gold, 100-oz silver, Micro Copper and Brent Last Day Financial.
- Ask: weekend (24/7) access for crypto, gold and silver; is 100-oz silver live on weekends; margin rates; fees per contract; API (FIX) access; daily settlement times.
- Open a separate exchange account for TON, or decide to stop offering it.
Build the contract map
- A table in the bridge: MT5 symbol → CME contract, contract size, current expiry month, trading hours.
- Convert client lots into contracts and keep a running "not yet hedged" amount per symbol, always smaller than one contract.
Build the "hedge first, then fill" bridge to CME
- For each client order: check the symbol is open on CME, check the limit, send the CME order, then fill the client at the CME price plus markup.
- Refuse the client if the CME order is rejected or times out.
Price clients from CME
- Show clients the CME futures price converted to spot by subtracting the tracked futures–spot gap. Because the client price and the hedge come from the same market, the gap can't hurt you.
- Pull the quote if the CME feed is older than a few seconds.
Set the MT5 trading sessions
- Pause gold, silver, copper and Brent during the CME daily break.
- Pause CME-hedged symbols during Saturday maintenance.
- Disable copper and Brent on weekends, and apply the weekend spreads and limits.
Automate the roll
- A few days before each expiry, roll every hedge to the next month with one calendar-spread order, then update the contract map.
Risk and cash screen
- Live per-symbol: client position, CME hedge, difference (must stay below one contract), margin used, today's variation margin.
Test, then go live small
- Run on demo with live CME prices for 2–3 weeks, including one roll and two weekends. Go live with low limits, then raise them.
- Re-run this simulation with your FCM's real fees and your MT5 deal history.
All figures come from a simulated backtest (300 paths of 52 weeks) using assumed fees, contract sizes and prices. They are not live trading results or investment advice. Confirm every contract, trading hour and margin rate with your FCM.